Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will attempt to win their third-straight sport on Christmas towards Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins at Laborious Rock Stadium (1 p.m. ET, FOX). The Packers have performed effectively to begin the month, however they’re nonetheless on the skin wanting in on the subject of the playoffs. In the meantime, the Dolphins have misplaced three-straight video games however are nonetheless holding onto the ultimate playoff spot within the AFC.
This season has not gone effectively for Rodgers and Co. after being one of many high groups within the NFC final season. One of many causes for the Packers’ struggles is their play on the street this season (2-5). Inexperienced Bay has misplaced 4 out of its previous 5 video games, with its lone win coming towards the Bears in Week 13. In the event that they wish to give themselves a shot to make the playoffs, the Packers should win on Christmas and of their final two regular-season video games towards the Vikings and Lions.
Talking of the playoffs, the Dolphins are barely hanging on after dropping by three factors to the Payments final week. Miami hasn’t regarded nice over the previous few weeks, and even with a favourite schedule down the stretch, it might’t afford to blow a house sport towards a sub-.500 workforce.
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS: ATS | Straight up
Beneath, we’ll offer you all the data you want earlier than putting a wager on Packers-Dolphins, together with the up to date odds from Sports activities Interplay, suggestions, and our prediction for this Week 16 matchup.
Betting odds courtesy of Sports activities Interplay
- Unfold: Dolphins -4
- Over/Underneath: 49.5
- Moneyline: Packers +166; Dolphins -199
Although the Dolphins are on a three-game dropping streak, they’re nonetheless the favourite heading into Sunday’s sport. Miami has been first rate towards the unfold this season (7-7) however is 4-2 ATS at house. Lastly, the entire is ready at 49.5, which is smart given the respective strengths and weaknesses of the Packers’ protection and Dolphins’ offense.
Packers vs. Dolphins all-time collection
The Dolphins lead the all-time collection over the Packers with a document of 10-5. Nevertheless, the Packers have gained 4 out of the previous 5 conferences. The final time these two groups performed one another was in Week 10 of 2018 when the Packers defeated the Dolphins 31-12 at Lambeau Discipline. Aaron Rodgers threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns, whereas Aaron Jones added 172 complete yards and two TDs on 18 touches.
Three developments to know
— The Packers are 3-2 towards the unfold and 2-3 straight up on the cash line as an underdog this season, based on Bryan Zarpentine of BetQL.
— Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 23-8 straight up on the cash line within the second half of the season, based on BetQL.
— Miami is 3-1 ATS as a house favourite however 1-4 ATS after a loss this season.
Reap the benefits of BetQL’s 3-day free trial and see all of our greatest bets throughout all sports activities, together with faculty soccer, NFL, and MLB!
Three issues to observe for
Can the Dolphins’ working sport have one other huge sport on Christmas?
Although they misplaced final weekend to the Payments, the Dolphins rediscovered their working sport with Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed. Mostert had a season-high 136 yards on 17 carries, whereas Ahmed had 43 yards and a landing on six carries. Success on the bottom solely furthers open up the passing sport for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip) is again within the fold this week, he and Mostert should have no points with the Packers’ protection permitting 148.9 dashing yards per sport this season.
Aaron Rodgers vs. the Dolphins’ protection
Rodgers is coming off a stable efficiency towards the Rams on Monday evening, finishing 73.3 p.c of his passes for 229 yards, a landing, and an interception. It wasn’t one among Rodgers’ greatest performances, nevertheless it was ok to get the Packers a win. Now, he’ll face a Dolphins’ protection that has struggled towards the go this season, permitting 246.3 yards per sport (sixth most within the NFL). Miami has additionally given up 1.7 landing passes per sport (sixth most). Rodgers could have a number of alternatives to get Christian Watson, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Robert Tonyan concerned within the passing sport.
Can the Dolphins restrict the penalties?
If the Dolphins wish to snap their dropping skid on Christmas, they have to restrict their self-inflicted errors. For the season, Miami is averaging 6.4 penalties per sport (eighth most), and over the previous three video games, that is bumped as much as 7.3 penalties/sport (second highest). Final week, the Dolphins had eight penalties for 51 yards however had been capable of overcome them and hold it shut towards the Payments. Taking part in clear soccer will go a good distance towards serving to the Dolphins win and canopy.
Stat that issues
185.1. That is the Packers’ passing yards per sport allowed. Although Inexperienced Bay has given up 22.4 factors per sport, their go protection has been stable. Inexperienced Bay has given up simply 158.3 passing yards per sport up to now three video games, however remember the fact that the previous three quarterbacks Inexperienced Bay confronted had been Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, and Jalen Hurts. Hurts is one of the best passer amongst that group, however the Eagles merely ran all around the Packers a couple of weeks in the past. Over the previous few weeks, Tagovailoa struggled towards the 49ers and Chargers however began to determine it out towards the Payments. The younger QB goes to have hit on these chunk performs when accessible but additionally take the check-down passes, too.
Packers vs. Dolphins prediction
The Packers have just lately discovered life once more, making them a reside underdog. Nevertheless, Miami regarded higher of their loss towards the Payments and will be capable to run on this Inexperienced Bay protection. If Mostert and Co. may be profitable on the bottom, Waddle and Hill could have extra room to function and rip off some huge performs. This sport means extra to the Dolphins at this level of the season, and having the home-field benefit will push them excessive.
PREDICTION: Dolphins 27, Packers 21. The Dolphins will cowl (-4), and the entire will go UNDER (49.5).
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