The Chicago Bears are coming off a bye week. That’s just about the one benefit they’ve over the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend. Nonetheless, regardless of the plain disparity in expertise between the 2 squads, bettors appear inclined to achieve for the celebs, simply as they did with the Texans over the Cowboys final weekend.
Based on OddsChecker US, 65 p.c of bets on the Eagles-Bears moneyline have gone in favor of Chicago. The Eagles come into Week 15 as nine-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, the second-largest unfold of any group this week behind solely the Houston Texans (+14) towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. So, if I actually consider that bettors are simply searching for an infinite payday, why wouldn’t they be backing the Houston Texans this week? Easy, they only watched the Texans lose them cash by failing to beat the Dallas Cowboys. Now, they get the Chiefs, arguably a more durable opponent, and folks consider they’ll’t probably win.
With the Bears, it’s completely different although. Chicago’s offense is scorching, and whereas Justin Fields’ impeccable play hasn’t amounted to a lot on the win column, it’s bought to be solely a matter of time earlier than they break by and are available out victorious. So, why not have or not it’s after a bye and towards a group a number of followers contemplate to be overrated?
I’m not saying that the Eagles are overrated. I believe they’re reliable Tremendous Bowl contenders, who, sure, have had a straightforward schedule, however they’ve dominated in these “simple” video games, simply as nice groups do. That mentioned, my perception isn’t shared amongst NFL followers in every single place. There are a number of folks with cash on the road who noticed Philly lose to the Commanders and barely beat the Inexperienced Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals who consider the Eagles are extra fraudulent than Brett Favre’s subsequent huge public funding, and this could possibly be the week that principle is confirmed, proper? Effectively, I doubt it.
Justin Fields’ best attribute is his mobility. Regardless of his extremely proficient arm, the Bears’ lack of robust receivers has inhibited Fields’ skill to vary video games by the air. That’s not saying he hasn’t — he’s seemed unbelievable when pressured to drop again and go — however it’s simpler for Fields to vary the momentum of video games on the bottom. The Eagles have allowed just one speeding landing to quarterbacks all yr, tied for the third-fewest within the NFL. That mentioned, the Eagles do permit a reasonably excessive 6.8 yards per rush from quarterbacks, however that quantity appears to have nearly no impact on a group’s file. That 6.8 determine ranks Philadelphia useless final within the NFL…they’ve the very best file within the league. The Detroit Lions have the next-worst mark (additionally 6.8 yards per try), they’re one of many hottest groups within the NFL, competing for a playoff spot, and regardless of permitting 147 yards and two touchdowns to Fields of their first assembly, the Lions nonetheless emerged victorious.
There’s something going the Bears’ approach although. The Eagles’ protection at present ranks second in whole yards allowed per recreation, and whereas Fields and firm did beat the top-ranked protection — San Francisco — earlier within the season, that was Week 1, earlier than the Niners discovered their footing, and in arguably the worst climate circumstances both group has performed in all yr. It’s laborious to guage that recreation on any foundation apart from as an outlier. That mentioned, Chicago has solely confronted two different top-10 defenses all season — Week 7 on the New England Patriots, the place the Bears put up their highest level whole of the season, and Week 12 towards the Jets, the place Justin Fields didn’t play, which will also be considered as an outlier. Not like the Patriots, we are able to’t count on the Eagles to solely put up 14 factors although. In reality, Philly has only one recreation this yr scoring fewer than 20.
The Eagles do additionally play the Cowboys subsequent week, which is undoubtedly their hardest remaining recreation. Maybe Philadelphia will overlook the Bears, focusing an excessive amount of on Dallas, and lose sight of what’s immediately in entrance of them, however the Eagles aren’t dumb. I doubt they’d be so short-sighted. They’re up two video games on the Cowboys, and I’m positive they’d gladly take a loss towards Dallas as long as they beat Chicago. In that case, not less than the Eagles would nonetheless maintain a recreation over Dallas for the division lead.
There are a number of different video games with lure traces in Week 15 that appear a lot better for betting the underdog too. Why are the Cowboys solely four-point favorites towards the Jaguars? That appears a bit low. How concerning the Bengals being solely three-point favorites over Tampa Bay regardless of being simply two weeks faraway from taking down the Chiefs? Why are the Browns simply three-point favorites at dwelling towards a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens group? Vegas tends to know way over the common NFL shopper, and realizing unusual spreads like these is step one towards beating them. I’m not saying they’re all going to hit, simply to regulate all of them this weekend.
Certain, there’s some purpose to place confidence in the Bears towards the Eagles, however 9 factors is quite a bit and there’s a purpose Vegas has set the road at larger than one possession. Sure, typically they’re fallacious however in accordance with Professional-Soccer-Reference’s Win Likelihood Calculator, nine-point underdogs have only a 26.6 p.c likelihood of successful initially of a recreation — roughly a 1-in-4 likelihood. The chances of a Bears’ win are simply plus 3.28-to-1, which means Vegas nonetheless holds the higher hand. I like Justin Fields too. Don’t let his greatness cloud your judgment although.
